The CAP Index, Inc. Crime Forecasting Methodology
Dr. Robert M. Figlio and Steven Aurand founded CAP Index in 1988 to address the growing need of corporations and government agencies to objectively identify and measure their foreseeable crime risks and help companies manage costly losses. Named for our unique model that assesses Crimes Against Persons and Property, CAP Index, Inc. was founded by pioneers in the fields of demographics, criminology, statistics and computer modeling.
Crime Risk Model
The CAP Index model is based on The Theory of Social Disorganization that states that there is a proven correlation between the Social Disorganization in a neighborhood and the amount of loss predicted to occur there. By analyzing neighborhood demographics (excluding race, religion, and gender) together with crime statistics and other databases with known indicators of crime, we are able to provide precise scores indicating a site’s risk of a crime in comparison to national, state and county averages.
The Theoretical Basis For CAP Index's Crime Forecasting Model
The theoretical basis for CAP Index’s crime forecasting model stemmed from studies of crime and delinquency in neighborhoods, undertaken at the University of Chicago in the 1920’s. The studies pioneered research in the discipline which later became known as the “ecological perspective” regarding crime, delinquency, and human behavior. This approach views crime and delinquency as the products of weakly organized social environments (such as neighborhoods). These neighborhoods can be recognized in geographic space by physical characteristics of the environment and the demographic structure of the population that lives within.
CAP Index, Inc. has been at the forefront in responding to the need to foresee where crime is likely to occur and to assess the effects of crime deterrence measures by building on this long and central area of investigation in modern criminology and criminal justice practice.
Loss Forecasting Methodology
CAP Index, Inc. crime risk data are generated by sophisticated econometric forecasting techniques. The method is known as structural modeling and employs a complex multivariate analysis of a wide variety of neighborhood physical housing, demographic data, and crime information in order to produce a “best fit” crime risk assessment for geographic areas as defined by CAP’s standard approach distance, population density, or as defined by the user’s specific requirements.
The methods used by CAP are widely employed in all areas of research and application in academic, business and governmental settings. To insure high validity and utility, CAP’s crime forecasts are continually tested against thousands of actual crime experiences reported at specific sites across industry groups and geographical areas.