Cap Index

Our Methodology

The CRIMECAST® Model is generated using sophisticated forecasting techniques, structural modeling, and multivariate analysis that combine demographic and business statistics with crime and loss data to measure a neighborhood’s “social disorganization.”

The firm’s proprietary approach uses millions of actual address-specific crime and loss incidents from law enforcement, and corporate sources.

CAP Index CRIMECAST Methodology


The CRIMECAST® Scoring System

The CRIMECAST Scoring System is based on the strong relationship between a neighborhood’s “social disorganization” and the amount of crime that occurs there. Social disorganization theory is closely linked to the “ecological perspective” of crime, delinquency, and human behavior, which views criminal activity as the product of weakly-organized social environments. This crime affects not only the immediate neighborhood, it also spills over to surrounding areas. Criminals sometimes travel to commit crime, and our model considers these potential travel patterns.

Our Process

A Closer Look

CRIMECAST Scores are generated by sophisticated forecasting techniques.  Examples of the kinds of demographic predictors used in our model are:

  • Population and housing distributions
  • People living in group quarters (prisons, colleges, nursing homes, military installations, etc.)
  • Housing values and home ownership
  • Family and household membership, and age distributions
  • Marital status
  • Nature of housing unit (attached, detached, multi-family, mobile home, etc.)
  • Age of housing structure
  • Time lived in housing unit
  • Number of vehicles
  • Educational levels
  • Income amounts and sources, and families/households below poverty level
  • Employment rates
  • Means of transportation to work, and travel time required

By analyzing neighborhood demographics (excluding race, religion, and other protected categories), and business proximity data with crime and loss statistics, CAP Index is able to provide precise scores indicating a site’s relative risk of crime in comparison to national, state, and county averages.

Let CAP Index help you Outsmart Crime®!