Cap Index

Our Methodology

The CRIMECAST® Model is generated using sophisticated econometric forecasting techniques, structural modeling, and multivariate analysis that combine demographic statistics and actual crime data to measure a neighborhood’s “social disorganization.”


Blue Methodology


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The firm’s proprietary approach employs hundreds of proven demographic predictors in tandem with millions of actual address-specific crime and loss incidents from public and private law enforcement, government, and corporate sources.

View validation studies

government graphicA Closer Look

The CRIMECAST scoring system is based on the strong relationship between a neighborhood’s “social disorganization” and the amount of crime that occurs there. Social disorganization theory is closely linked to the “ecological perspective” of crime, delinquency, and human behavior, which views criminal activity as the product of weakly-organized social environments. This crime affects not only the immediate neighborhood, it also spills over to surrounding areas. Criminals sometimes travel to commit crime, and our model considers these potential travel patterns.

CRIMECAST Scores are generated by sophisticated econometric forecasting techniques. Examples of the kinds of demographic predictors used in our model are:

  • Population and housing distributions
  • Age distributions
  • People living in group quarters (prisons, colleges, nursing homes, military installations, etc.)
  • Housing values
  • Family and household membership
  • Marital status
  • Home ownership
  • Nature of housing unit (attached, detached, multi-family, mobile home, etc.)
  • Age of housing structure
  • Time lived in housing unit
  • Number of vehicles
  • Income amounts and sources
  • Educational levels
  • Families/households below poverty level
  • Employment rates
  • Means of transportation to work
  • Travel time to work

By analyzing neighborhood demographics (excluding race, religion, and other protected categories), crime statistics, and other databases with known indicators of crime, CAP Index is able to provide precise scores indicating a site’s relative risk of crime in comparison to national, state, and county averages.

Let CAP Index help you Outsmart Crime®!