Q2 2026 Crime Trends: What’s Changing and What It Means
5 Million Crime Records. One Clear Picture of What’s Changing in Q2 2026.
Understanding crime trends requires more than looking at headlines. It requires enough data to separate meaningful patterns from statistical noise.
CAP Index’s latest Q2 2026 Crime Overview analyzes more than 5 million crime records collected over the past four to five years, including approximately 526,000 crimes reported during the first half of 2026. That depth of data allows us to move beyond broad crime trends and identify the specific locations, industries, and crime types that deserve attention.
The Big Picture: Crime Continues to Decline
Overall crime remained on a downward trajectory in Q2 2026, declining approximately 2% year over year. While that’s encouraging, the pace of improvement has slowed compared to the larger decreases seen throughout 2025.
As overall crime levels stabilize, understanding where crime is increasing becomes even more important.
Residential Areas Show Early Warning Signs
One of the most significant findings this quarter is the increase in simple assault at residential locations, accompanied by increases in aggravated assault, vehicle-related theft, trespassing, drug violations, and property destruction.
These trends may represent early indicators of increasing interpersonal violence, something security professionals, insurers, government agencies, and community organizations should monitor closely.
Retail Crime Is Shifting
While grocery store shoplifting has begun to moderate compared to last year’s sharp increases, it remains elevated relative to historical levels.
Meanwhile, a new trend has emerged.
Shopping malls were the only major retail category to experience a noticeable increase in shoplifting while many other retail sectors—including liquor stores and discount retailers—continued to decline.
The question is no longer simply “Is shoplifting increasing?”
It’s “Where is it increasing, what merchandise is being targeted, and why?”
Those answers help retailers develop more effective security strategies.
Better Decisions Start with Better Crime Intelligence
Looking at overall crime counts only tells part of the story.
By analyzing crime at the incident level—by location type, industry, and offense—organizations can identify the risks most relevant to their operations and allocate resources more effectively.
Because smarter security decisions begin with understanding not just where crime is happening, but what kind of crime is occurring and why.
Watch the full Q2 Crime Overview to explore the latest trends and see what they could mean for your organization.
Watch the Full Presentation
These insights provide a snapshot, but the full context and analysis are critical for making informed decisions.
Watch the full presentation to explore the data in detail and learn how these trends can shape your security strategy.
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