CAP Scores’ Accuracy Validated Again
2026 Study Confirms Score and Observed Crime Correlation
CAP Index has released its 2026 Validation Study, reaffirming the accuracy and reliability of its crime risk forecasting methodology through independent analysis of nearly 12 million crime incidents across the United States.
The study evaluated crime outcomes across approximately 240,000 U.S. Census block groups and found a consistent relationship between CAP Scores and observed crime frequency: as CAP Scores increased, average incident counts also increased across crimes against people, property, and society.
The validation effort leveraged independently collected incident-level crime data spanning urban, suburban, and rural communities nationwide. Importantly, the data used to validate the models were separate from the data used to build them, ensuring objective and unbiased performance testing.
“Our clients rely on CAP Scores to support critical security and risk-related decisions,” said Stephen Longo, CRO and EVP of CAP Index. “This study demonstrates that CAP Scores continue to provide a measurable and defensible indicator of localized crime risk.”
The 2026 study also expanded analysis of Crimes Against Society, adding additional insight into public-order and regulatory offenses alongside traditional crimes against people and property.
According to the study, block groups in the highest CAP Score range experienced substantially more observed crime incidents on average than those in the lowest score range, reinforcing the model’s ability to distinguish meaningfully between lower-risk and higher-risk environments.
The report further highlights the importance of regularly updating crime risk scores as local conditions evolve over time. While many locations remain relatively stable between releases, score movement can help organizations identify areas where security strategies, mitigation measures, or operational assumptions may warrant review.
For more than 35 years, CAP Index has provided location-based crime risk intelligence to organizations across industries requiring objective, data-driven security insights. Its proprietary methodology incorporates crime and loss data alongside more than 100 socio-economic and environmental risk factors to support informed decision-making and risk management.
The full 2026 Validation Study is available here: CAP Index Validation Study 2026.
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