How independent validation helps organizations make more informed, defensible security and risk management decisions.
Organizations make important decisions based on crime risk data every day.
They determine where to locate facilities, how to allocate security resources, which sites require additional mitigation measures, and how to prioritize operational planning. In many cases, these decisions involve significant financial, reputational, and safety considerations.
But there is an important question that should always be asked about any crime risk model: How do we know the scores actually reflect real-world crime conditions?
That question is precisely why CAP Index conducts an independent validation study each year. The newly released 2026 Validation Study evaluated nearly 12 million crime incidents across approximately 240,000 U.S. Census block groups nationwide to measure how closely CAP Scores align with observed crime outcomes.
The findings were clear and consistent: as CAP Scores increased, the average number of observed crime incidents also increased across all major crime categories analyzed.
Validation Is About More Than Accuracy
In crime risk forecasting, validation is not simply a technical exercise. It is a measure of whether organizations can confidently rely on the information guiding their decisions.
A crime risk score only has value if it meaningfully differentiates lower-risk environments from higher-risk environments. The 2026 study demonstrated exactly that relationship.
Block groups in lower CAP Score ranges consistently experienced fewer observed incidents than block groups in higher score ranges, including for:
- Crimes Against People
- Crimes Against Property
- Crimes Against Society
- Total combined incidents
The consistency of this upward progression is important because it confirms that the scoring model corresponds to measurable differences in real-world crime activity.
Why Incident-Level Data Matters
One of the defining characteristics of the CAP Index methodology is its reliance on incident-level crime data.
Rather than relying solely on summarized jurisdiction-level statistics, CAP Index analyzes granular address-level and latitude/longitude crime records collected directly from law enforcement agencies nationwide.
This level of precision matters because crime risk can vary dramatically within the same city, ZIP code, or municipality. Two locations separated by only a few blocks may experience very different crime patterns.
By standardizing analysis at the Census block group level, CAP Index is able to provide higher-resolution insight into localized crime conditions.
Independent Validation Helps Ensure Objectivity
Equally important is how the validation itself is conducted.
The crime data used to validate CAP Scores are separate from the data used to build the models. This distinction helps ensure that the results are objective and unbiased rather than simply reflecting the data used during model development.
Independent validation provides organizations with greater confidence that CAP Scores are not only methodologically sound, but also operationally reliable.
Why Updating Scores Matters
Crime conditions evolve over time.
While many locations remain relatively stable between scoring releases, some experience measurable changes due to shifts in underlying crime patterns and local conditions. The 2026 study identified tens of thousands of locations with moderate or significant score movement between releases.
These changes do not necessarily mean a location has become unsafe overnight. However, score movement can provide important context for organizations evaluating whether existing security strategies, mitigation measures, or operational assumptions remain appropriate.
Even moderate changes may warrant review depending on the site, surrounding environment, and organizational risk tolerance.
A Higher Standard for Crime Risk Intelligence
For more than 35 years, CAP Index has focused on providing organizations with objective, data-driven crime risk intelligence that is trusted, tested, and defensible.
The 2026 Validation Study reinforces an important principle: crime risk forecasting should not rely on assumptions alone. It should be measurable, transparent, and continuously tested against real-world outcomes.
Read the full 2026 Validation Study here: CAP Index Validation Study 2026
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