This interview with Dr. Grant Drawve, CAP Index’s VP of Research and Innovation and Walter Palmer, CAP Index’s COO/EVP explores temporal dynamics in crime risk and was featured in Loss Prevention Magazine’s “Ask the Expert” feature.
This discussion is the third in a series about their perspective on understanding and evaluating crime data. They also discuss understanding true crime rates and using data and modeling to improve operations, lower risks, and properly allocate resources.
LPM: Following up from the last conversation that focused on how ‘place matters’ in terms of crime at specific places…what about time – does ‘time matter’?
Dr. Grant Drawve: Time absolutely matters but when it comes to risk, we tend to think spatial first and time secondary. Crime’s temporal patterns – variation depending on season, weekday/weekend, time of day – become incredibly important when planning security measures to mitigate risk.
Walter Palmer: From a retailer’s perspective, recognizing these temporal patterns can focus and optimize loss prevention strategies. For example, they can allocate staff more efficiently, schedule security patrols during high-risk periods, and implement targeted measures like increased lighting or surveillance during peak crime times.
LPM: As far as temporal dynamics in crime risk, do you have an example you could walk us through in terms of time of day and crime occurrence?
Dr. Grant Drawve: Sure, let’s look at Dallas, comparing daytime and nighttime crime at retailers in Q12024. Almost twice as many crimes occur during the day (1,131 to 661) which is expected based on typical hours of operation. The interesting part is when we look at crime types. There were 539 shoplifting incidents during daytime hours, and only 166 at night. Conversely, there were only 19 daytime burglaries but 144 at night. In another example, looking at hotels/motels, person and property crimes are more prevalent during the night than during the day (219 vs 119).
Walter Palmer: These insights consider temporal dynamics in crime risk to optimize security by identifying potential cost savings. Given the low incidence of shoplifting at night, retailers might reduce or stop daytime-focused security measures after closing, think on-floor security staff and active customer monitoring systems. They may reallocate resources towards nighttime security needs, like enhanced alarms, improved locks, and better exterior lighting to prevent burglaries. By discontinuing redundant daytime security assets during non-operational hours, retailers can manage security budgets more efficiently while maintaining effective protection against crime.
LPM: So how should organizations think about ‘time’ when planning and implementing security measures?
Dr. Grant Drawve: There are two types of time we need to consider: “regular” time and “unique” time events.
“Regular” time refers to normal, ongoing periods. During these times, it’s essential to implement long-term strategic initiatives aimed at reducing inherent risk. This means allocating resources based on time-specific data – such as deploying guards during high-risk periods or reinforcing security measures for certain products at specific times of the day.
“Unique” time events include holidays or special occurrences. During these periods, businesses should adopt tactical measures to respond to the increased risk. For example, during holidays, large events, or natural disasters, there is a heightened need for enhanced security.
Striking a balance between strategic risk mitigation and tactical responses is crucial. This approach ensures resources are deployed effectively, preventing a reactive “whack-a-mole” approach where resources are hastily scrambled to address issues as they arise, potentially missing critical vulnerabilities.
Walter Palmer: Exactly right Grant, and tracks with what we hear from our customers. During “regular” times, businesses use data and risk modeling to develop routine security measures: deploying additional security during peak shoplifting hours, implementing product-specific security for high-theft items, regularly inspecting security systems for functionality, and performing regular staff training. When it comes to “unique” times like holidays, nearby sporting events, or even natural disasters, they’ll implement special measures like increased security patrols, bag checks at entrances and exits, crowd control measures, and performing special staff training as needed. Balancing the strategic and tactical approaches ensures efficient resource deployment and avoids a reactive approach.
Conclusion
Dr. Grant Drawve: In conclusion, considering both spatial and temporal factors in minimizing crime risk and optimizing security asset allocation is crucial. By recognizing and analyzing the temporal patterns of crime, organizations can strategically allocate resources and implement security measures more effectively, balancing routine risk reduction with tactical responses to unique events.
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