CUSTOM RISK MODELS

YOUR PERSONALIZED CRIME RISK ASSESSMENT SOLUTION

Security strategy isn’t one size fits all. A CAP Index Custom Risk Model goes beyond standard approaches by integrating your internal data with the proven accuracy of CAP Index’s best-in-class crime risk scoring system and advanced location intelligence.

By visualizing and analyzing location-specific factors—such as demographics, patterns of daily activity, and economic data—alongside crime risk, we uncover deeper insights into the unique risks at each of your sites. This data-driven approach empowers you to make informed decisions based on intelligence rather than relying on gut instinct.

Our team of criminologists and risk assessment experts will work closely with you to turn complex data into actionable insights. By combining various external and internal data sources—including operational metrics and environmental factors—we help you build a clear, customized risk assessment model that fits your specific security needs.

This model helps optimize your resource allocation in many ways. For example, most organization’s riskiest sites represent 20% or less of their total sites, but they can consume the majority of the security budget. With our data-backed models, correctly identifying and prioritizing these sites becomes easier and decision-making for resource deployment is more effective across all your sites.

TAILORED TO YOUR NEEDS

Every organization is unique, and so are its challenges. That’s why we offer flexible options for our custom models to suit your needs:

• Static Models: For annual analysis, providing a snapshot of risk that helps you plan for the year ahead.
• Dynamic Models: For organizations with evolving risks, these models are updated regularly (usually quarterly or seasonally) to capture fluctuations and allow you to adjust strategy in real time.
• Unidimensional Models: Focused on a specific loss category such as shrink, workplace violence, or theft, allowing deep, targeted analysis.
• Multidimensional Models: Ideal for addressing several loss categories at once, integrating different data points for a more holistic risk assessment.

With CAP Index’s Custom Risk Models, your business can move beyond guesswork and gut feelings, embracing a data-driven approach that addresses both current and emerging threats. Whether you’re looking to refine resource allocation, build stronger rationales for the C-suite, or ensure consistent security measures across locations, we have the tools and expertise to help you succeed.

Our custom analytics models leverage the combined strengths of traditional CAP scores, police crime incident data, and your store performance metrics to achieve highly accurate and customized risk assessments.

REAL-LIFE EXAMPLES OF CUSTOM RISK MODELS

CAP Solution
We developed a custom scoring model that combined CAP Index’s crime risk data with the client’s own internal data to fine-tune the risk score for each location.

• Integrated CAP Index’s crime risk scores with the client’s store-level data, including incident history and local demographics.
• Created a custom risk score for each store that took into account both external crime data and store-specific factors.
• Provided a detailed breakdown of risk levels for all locations, allowing the client to strategically adjust security spending.
• Enabled the client to allocate more resources to high-risk stores and reduce spending at low-risk sites, optimizing their overall security budget.

Once the risks were identified, we worked with the client to determine the correct “dosage” of security for each location. This process included analyzing what security measures, such as staffing, technology, or training, would be most effective for each store, ensuring that resources were not only allocated efficiently but also tailored to what actually works for each site.

Custom Risk Model 2: Simplifying Risk Scoring Across Locations

Customer Overview
This client operates locations nationwide and had been collecting data on incidents of violence against employees and theft within their stores.

Challenge
The client faced two key challenges:

• They struggled to establish a clear threshold to distinguish their highest-risk locations from the lowest-risk ones before conducting more detailed assessments.
• They suspected that environmental factors around their locations—such as nearby hotels, liquor stores, and bars—played a bigger role in driving incidents than the characteristics of the stores themselves. As they put it, “it’s not our customers, it’s people who wander over and cause trouble!”

CAP Solution

We developed a custom scoring engine that allowed the client to better understand and manage risk at each location.

• Integrated the client’s incident data with CAP Index’s risk scores.
• Conducted a multi-layered spatial analysis using three concentric proximity rings around each location. By layering geospatial data—including demographics, patterns of daily activity, environmental features, and economic indicators—we uncovered how surrounding factors, such as nearby hotels, liquor stores, and bars, significantly influenced risk exposure.
• Leveraged location intelligence to provide a clearer picture of why incidents were happening where they did, helping the client plan and prioritize actions with greater precision.
• Built a dynamic risk scoring model that distilled these insights into an intuitive, actionable scale, empowering the client to prioritize their most vulnerable sites.
• Implemented an automated system that continuously recalibrates the risk scores annually, ensuring the data remains relevant and actionable based on evolving incident trends.

CAP Solution

We created a comprehensive scoring matrix to classify each location based on both employee safety and shrink, helping the client target their resources more effectively.

• Combined the risks of violence and shrink using advanced statistical techniques to generate a scoring matrix.
• Classified each location according to its unique risk profile.
• Used the matrix to evaluate security resourcing and guarding allocations across all locations.
• Identified sites that could benefit from increased protection and those where security spending could be reduced without compromising safety.

These examples demonstrate CAP Index’s ability to deliver tailored solutions that help clients understand and address their specific risk challenges. Our custom models range from basic custom risk scores, which combine CAP data with client-specific data to fine-tune each location’s risk, to complex scoring matrices that incorporate dynamic statistical techniques, environmental factors, and multiple dimensions of risk. Whether it’s simplifying risk categorization or developing sophisticated resource optimization strategies, CAP Index ensures that clients can prioritize resources and take proactive action to mitigate risk effectively.

MEET OUR EXPERTS

Our Custom Risk Models are crafted by the CAP Index Research and Innovation Team, a group of seasoned criminologists and risk assessment professionals dedicated to delivering cutting-edge, data-driven solutions tailored to your unique needs.

With extensive experience in analyzing crime data and developing risk models, our experts ensure that each Custom Risk Model is meticulously designed to address the specific security challenges your organization faces. By leveraging the latest research methodologies and innovative technologies, the team provides you with actionable insights and strategic guidance to optimize your security measures.

Learn more about our Research and Innovation Team  and discover how their expertise can help transform your security strategy.