Custom Risk Model - Helping Retailers Optimize Security

Custom Risk Model – Helping Retailers Optimize Security

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Custom Risk Model Transforms Retailer’s Operations and Risk Assessment

CAP’s Custom Risk Model Transforms Retailer’s Operations and Risk Assessment

“Without the Custom Risk Model, our losses would be 25-30% higher than they are today.”

— -Risk & Compliance Manager at a leading food retailer​


With 16.5 million customers in and out of its 2,550 stores each week, security is a significant undertaking for this leading food retailer. For more than 10 years, the company has relied on crime risk insights from CAP Index to drive its security strategy, optimize operations, and safeguard its business, even as the organization and the crime impacting it has evolved.

2,550 stores nationwide | 16.5 million customers weekly | Diverse store footprint | Rising theft and violence

For this business, no two locations are quite the same. With stores located everywhere from subway stations in busy city centers to urban residential areas and even dozens of shops on remote islands that serve as the only grocery in town, the organization couldn’t rely on a one-size-fits-all solution to its security strategy. 

The crime risks plaguing its stores aren’t uniform, either. In recent years, a rise in theft has led to an increase in confrontation and violence across locations. In 2023 alone, store employees experienced 1,100 physical assaults, even after interventions were put in place. This increasingly volatile crime landscape has made implementing the right security solutions even more of a priority.


To help combat these safety threats, this organization turned to CAP Index for a Custom Risk Model. CAP Index collaborated with the retailer to build a model that combines the company’s own internal shrink and loss data with CAP Index’s best-in-class crime risk scoring system. The model automates the risk assessment process by identifying the risk levels of each location, guiding the merchant’s security strategy and helping to optimize resource allocation. Updated quarterly, the model has become a foundation of its risk assessment process throughout the year.

Using the Custom Risk Model, the company now has:

  • An objective framework for evaluating thousands of diverse stores on a national scale
  • Data-backed insights that eliminate the risks of subjectivity and ensure confident decision-making 
  • A deeper understanding of the enterprise’s operational challenges
  • Protection against liability for security risks

“The Custom Risk Model really is a cornerstone of our risk assessment or a location.”

-Risk & Compliance Manager at a leading food retailer


Precision Protection: Driving
Targeted Security Enhancements

The organization relies on its Custom Risk Model to dictate new security and operational interventions, including: 

  • At select stores, checkout employees were threatened by patrons jumping counters to target stock and money stored behind the till. The retailer used the Custom Risk Model to identify 250 high-risk stores where installing protective barriers at checkouts would be most effective, leading to a 70% decrease in incidents. 
  • With many of its stores requiring a security guard, the organization needed a data-backed way to assign and manage personnel to maximize ROI on a strict security budget. The Custom Risk Model allows the company to share forecasts with guarding suppliers for when and where resources will be required, ensuring cost efficiency.
  • Security technology is evolving, and the retailer needed to ensure its technology investments would have a significant impact. The Custom Risk Model helped it identify where to install safer display cases and AI-powered security cameras, as well as locations where employees should wear body cameras.

Beyond Security: Helping Retailers Optimize Security and Enhance Operations with Data-Driven Insights

The Custom Risk Model’s benefits don’t end at security. While this retailer had already been relying on the model’s crime risk assessment capabilities for years, it also saw the potential in using it to understand the impacts of internal processes on shrink and loss. 

To pinpoint stores affected by operational issues rather than crime, the loss prevention team leveraged the Custom Risk Model to identify locations experiencing high losses but a low risk of crime. This helped direct them toward the appropriate operational interventions at those stores.

Giving Back: Investing in
Community for Safer Stores

For this retailer, ensuring the safety of its stores and employees goes beyond investing in security measures. To address the root causes of crime, the organization allocates a portion of its profits to community programs and initiatives every year. The Custom Risk Model identifies specific crime concerns around its stores, guiding its support of charities that create meaningful change rather than just temporary solutions.


CAP Index and this leading food retailer have worked closely together for more than 10 years, developing the Custom Risk Model mutually as the relationship has evolved. The organization is supported by CAP Index’s willingness to collaborate on a solution best suited to the retailer’s needs and experiment with new ways to solve loss prevention challenges. Today, the Custom Risk Model that is helping retailers optimize security globally is a cornerstone of the organization’s risk assessment process, powering more than just security allocation by acting as a foundation for data-driven decision-making across the enterprise. 

What Clients Say

CAP Reports are critical to my risk assessments. They have enabled us to take a more surgical approach to investing in our stores that need it the most.

Brad Reeves
Senior Manager of Asset Protection
Five Below, Inc.

CAP Index is the first tool I turn to when time is of the essence. I can always depend on CAP Index to provide me qualified crime information within a very few minutes that I feel comfortable reviewing with the C-Suite.

Stephen A. Brown, CPP
Director, Corporate Security / Facility Security Officer
Burns & McDonnell

CAP Index data is a vital part of our security decision-making process.

Keith McGlen, CPP, CHPA
Associate Vice President
System Security Services
Memorial Hermann Health System

CRIMECAST® Reports have helped our organization for many years to proactively assess the particular risk for crime surrounding our facilities. The CAP Index® CRIMECSAST Platform is an easy-to-use online service that provides us with the flexibility to share and decentralize crime risk data within our North America business units.

Carlos J. Cortez,
Manager, Global Security Programs,
Kraft Foods, Inc. / Mondelez International

Our property selectors are not discouraged from a site just because it receives a high score. What we do is issue every store – all of them – a security classification. The classification determines how we allocate our security resources to that store.

Claude Verville,

CAP Index's online platform, CRIMECAST, is great. It is easy to use and quick!

Ken Wieczorek,
Bank of America

In industries where there is high public contact and a customer is coming to our location (such as retail), why would you leave it to chance when planning security when there is an easy, affordable tool? When investing a million dollars on a location, what is this small charge compared to what it may cost you when you get sued?

Jay Beighley,
Nationwide Insurance

CAP Index assessments are a must for anyone engaged in asset protection. The new website is much improved and as important, easy to navigate.

Bruce List,
The Williams Companies

We have been using CAP Index for a few years and include it in our security vulnerability assessments. Highly recommend it.

Dan Yaross
Director, Protective Services
Nationwide Children's Hospital