To Correctly Calibrate Crime Prevention with Societal Changes, It Helps to “See” Crime Risk in the Right Way

The pandemic upended traditional patterns of work, leisure, and home life. Crime — being opportunity-driven — transformed alongside it. Consequently, many businesses are finding it wise to re-calibrate their crime prevention efforts, recognizing that it is incumbent upon them to align security with changing crime environments and patterns. While always challenging, it’s a mission made easier when an organization can visualize risk in multiple ways and in terms that are most relevant to them.

New Patterns in Crime

In a study of crime in Chicago, researchers observed that COVID-19 had unprecedented impacts on the security of society, economic development, people’s daily lives, as well as the distribution of crimes. Spatial and temporal patterns of crime have changed significantly, and new clusters of theft, battery, and burglary formed. 

Chicago is hardly alone, of course. Crime activity everywhere is shaped by where people go, when, and for what—and the pandemic has disrupted all of it. Targets of crime, too, have changed, with some businesses shuttered, many new ones emerging, online commerce and delivery activity climbing, and commercial and public spaces being re-purposed. Lastly, labor market churn and work-from-home activity are unprecedented, creating significant changes in employers’ labor pools.

Yes, business and society are now looking more like they once did, but experts believe that many features of today’s urban landscapes — born in the pandemic — are here to stay. Cities were compelled to decrease regulatory hurdles and allow more flexible uses of public and commercial spaces, for example — a “genie that will be hard to put back in the bottle,” according to a study released in June 2021 by the National League of Cities (NLC) Center for City Solutions.  

Decentralized retail also gained in popularity, as work-from-home arrangements became commonplace. Many cities are re-shaping as a result, with businesses trying to “meet customers where they are,” according to the NLC’s report, The Future of Cities—Reenvisioning Retail. “The 15-minute city, in which most residents can meet their needs within a short walk or bike ride from their home, has been gaining traction.”    
Identifying New Crime Risks

Changing work-life patterns are expected to transform basic aspects of many companies’ operations, such as how far away its customers are likely to travel, how broad a geographic area they service, and from what geographic areas they draw their employees.  These changes are also expected to alter crime activity.

All these factors suggest how a company might best view a location’s security risk. When crime is typically local and opportunistic, a narrow view may be best. If employees and customers are drawn from an extended geographic area, then a wider risk map offers a better view.

“I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and will talk to colleagues and contacts and go out there and talk to neighbors, but it all starts with a CAP Index CRIMECAST Report because it’s proved reliable and has buy-in through our leadership team.” Changes also reflect the need — if risk at a specific site is to be understood — to assess demographic data, business statistics, and information on points of interest in a neighborhood that can amplify or mitigate the risk of crime. The CAP Index Scoring System makes use of this information and provides it for client use. “I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and will talk to colleagues and contacts and go out there and talk to neighbors, but it all starts with a CAP Index CRIMECAST Report because it’s proved reliable and has buy-in through our leadership team,” said Michael Fessler, Senior Director for Enterprise Security Services at American Red Cross. 

To meet the varying needs of businesses, CAP Index’s new Premium Plus CRIMECAST Report includes four different scoring methodologies, each analyzing a progressively larger “sphere of influence” to assess the risk of crime. The varying methodologies account for the fact that perpetrators often travel varying distances to commit crimes depending on the target.  

Each sphere is defined by a maximum geographic radius or a population threshold and has different components that influence the overall crime risk score. CAP scores tell the story of a location’s crime risk and provide vital, validated crime risk intelligence, according to users.

“We do our own internal data review, but CAP Index gives the true neighborhood picture,” said Dan Yaross, Director of Security at Nationwide Children’s Hospital. “It provides credible data justification for security enhancements that we’re recommending for new construction or renovations of clinics.”

Visualizing Crime Risk

The CAP Index Scoring System uses sophisticated forecasting techniques to identify the overall risk of crime at a specific address. It also provides 108 crime risk scores—for twelve different offenses or offense aggregations, three levels of geography, and three-time periods (past, current, and projected). “The data is very credible and speaks volumes in comparing crime data for that specific location against the county, state, and national averages,” Yaross explained.

The system combines demographic and business statistics with crime and loss data to calculate crime risk, which is conveyed in understandable terms. “Once you understand the methodology, you can look [at a site’s scores], and in two minutes you’ve got an understanding,” said David Lafontaine, Director of Global Physical Security for Acuity Brands. “You know that the baseline is 100 and if the risk is above or below that, then you can identify your own personal threshold [score] for implementing security measures.”

CAP Index crime risk scores provide validated crime risk intelligence that empowers businesses to make better operational and security decisions, and its value is enhanced by mapping features that allow business and security leaders to visualize crime risk. A site-map view, for each “neighborhood” surrounding a given location, depicts the potential origin of criminal activity occurring at the location. The heat-map view calculates CAP Index Scores for every point on the map and colors are then shaded to indicate corresponding risk levels.

Experts say these map tools can dramatically improve the understanding of crime risk and add value to a report. They help clarify risks that otherwise might be missed or misunderstood, enable security teams to do more proactive planning, and facilitate resource allocation. “There absolutely is unique value in seeing things expressed visually,” according to Lorie Velarde, a geographic information systems analyst with the Irvine (Calif.) police department. “There are often patterns of things that cannot be understood unless you view them spatially.”