Cap Index

The CRIMECAST® Model

The CRIMECAST® Model is generated using sophisticated forecasting techniques, structural modeling, and multivariate analysis that combine demographic and business statistics  with crime and loss data to measure a neighborhood’s “social disorganization.”

The firm’s proprietary approach uses millions of actual address-specific crime and loss incidents from law enforcement, and corporate sources.

CAP Index CRIMECAST Methodology


Details on the 2019 US CRIMECAST Model 

The 2019 CRIMECAST® Model for the United States includes block group data enabling users to analyze locations down to the neighborhood level. Here’s what’s new:

  • CAP’s CRIMECAST® Maps and Reports have moved from using census tracts to 217,182 block groups, giving you the most accurate information to understand crime risks.
  • Our 2019 model includes a 12 times increase in police data, with a special focus on small jurisdictions.
  • Business density information is part of the 2019 US model. The types and concentrations of businesses in an area are proven indicators of crime risk.
  • Our 2019 US model also employs a new radius threshold weighting. The inner radius of the map now represents 80% of the overall score, and the outer radius provides the remaining 20%.

The new approach offers a more granular view of US neighborhoods:

CAP's OLD 2018 Tract View

CAP's NEW 2019 Block Group View

 

VIEW OUR 2019 US VALIDATION STUDY AND LEARN MORE.


The CRIMECAST® Scoring System

The CRIMECAST Scoring System is based on the strong relationship between a neighborhood’s “social disorganization” and the amount of crime that occurs there. Social disorganization theory is closely linked to the “ecological perspective” of crime, delinquency, and human behavior, which views criminal activity as the product of weakly-organized social environments. This crime affects not only the immediate neighborhood, it also spills over to surrounding areas. Criminals sometimes travel to commit crime, and our model considers these potential travel patterns.

Our Process

A Closer Look

CRIMECAST Scores are generated by sophisticated forecasting techniques.  Examples of the kinds of demographic predictors used in our model are:

  • Population and housing distributions
  • People living in group quarters (prisons, colleges, nursing homes, military installations, etc.)
  • Housing values and home ownership
  • Family and household membership, and age distributions
  • Marital status
  • Nature of housing unit (attached, detached, multi-family, mobile home, etc.)
  • Age of housing structure
  • Time lived in housing unit
  • Number of vehicles
  • Educational levels
  • Income amounts and sources, and families/households below poverty level
  • Employment rates
  • Means of transportation to work, and travel time required

By analyzing neighborhood demographics (excluding race, religion, and other protected categories), and business proximity data with crime and loss statistics, CAP Index is able to provide precise scores indicating a site’s relative risk of crime in comparison to national, state, and county averages.

Let CAP Index help you Outsmart Crime®!